The Poll Truth

December 9, 2007

Oprah and Obama Make History

Filed under: elections,Politics,presidential election,primary — jh staff @ 8:46 pm
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“For the first time, I’m stepping out of my pew because I’ve been inspired,” Oprah Winfrey recently told an audience of almost 30,000 who had just given the talk show host a resounding cheer.

It sounded like a college homecoming, appropriately so because the crowd was gathered at William Bryce Football Stadium where the University of South Carolina plays its games.

Oprah’s speech was consistent with the themes that she has focused on over the years on her television show.

As an NBC reporter wrote, “Oprah’s message was one of personal empowerment, similar to the stories she tells on her show everyday, telling the crowd that asking Obama to wait to run was the same as someone telling someone that they should wait to try and better their lives.”

At one point Winfrey invoked the dream speech of Dr. Martin Luther King.

“I’ve been inspired to believe that a new vision is possible for America,” she told the crowd. “Dr. King dreamed the dream. But we don’t have to just dream the dream anymore. We get to vote that dream into reality.”

The Obama campaign indicated that 18% of the first 8,500 people who showed up at the event wanted to become volunteers. 68% of those who obtained their tickets online had never been contacted by the campaign before.

Meanwhile a fresh MSNBC/Mason-Dixon poll put Clinton’s South Carolina lead over Obama at only three points.

“I got some sense, I know the difference between a book club and this seminal moment in our history,” Oprah announced.

A celebrity of Oprah’s stature is able to create a seminal moment, and this is one for the history books.

It turns out that Obama has another celebrity admirer—Will Smith.

As I reported a while back in a previous column, Smith revealed a secret ambition to someday become President of the United States.

While out promoting his upcoming film “I Am Legend,” Smith said in an interview with the U.K.’s Daily Mail, “I always wanted to be the first black president but Barack Obama stole my idea.”

The actor even expressed some policy ideas for his campaign. He said he would start with universal healthcare and shelter, indicating that he could not “see that happening under Bush. Too many bad things have happened under his presidency.”

Still, Smith distinguished himself from the Bush-hating fringe, saying, “I don’t believe he is an evil man, I just think he has an unevolved perspective. It’s a good thing he’s served his time. Now it’s time for Barack Obama.”

Smith has contributed some campaign cash and appeared in a video extolling the qualities of the Illinois senator and presidential candidate, but his support of the Obama campaign has been overshadowed by daytime TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey.

Evidently, Smith has no animus for Obama for attempting to take the same job that he himself had aspired to.

“That’s OK with me,” Smith explained. “Barack can go first and then I’ll take my turn.”

James Hirsen is a media analyst, Trinity Law School professor and teacher of mass media law at Biola University.

July 15, 2007

New Hampshire: Romney and Clinton in the Lead

July 13, 2007

Bloomberg at 12% Draws Equally From Dems and G.O.P.

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Draws about equal support from Republicans and Democrats

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds 12% of registered voters say they would vote for Bloomberg in a three-candidate race that includes Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate, and Rudy Giuliani as the Republican.

Hillary Clinton – 45%
Rudy Giuliani – 39%
Michael Bloomberg – 12%
Other/None/Etc – 3%

July 10, 2007

USA Today/Gallup Poll Shows New Low for Iraq War


The survey found that1 in 5 Americans say the increase in U.S. forces in Iraq since January has made the situation there better.

Half say the surge has made no difference.

Greater than 7 in 10 want to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq by April 2008.

July 5, 2007

Poll: Bloomberg Hurts Giuliani

Support for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Hillary Clinton in a theoretical general election matchup in New Jersey, with and without an independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

WITHOUT BLOOMBERG:

Giuliani, 47 %

Clinton, 44 %

___

WITH BLOOMBERG:

Giuliani, 36 %

Clinton, 36 %

Bloomberg, 18 %

New Jersey could be a place for Giuliani to pick up electoral votes that have gone to Democrats in recent elections. But Bloomberg could change that. New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president since 1988. But the poll has 61 % of Jersey voters holding a favorable view of Giuliani, more than any other presidential contender.

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,604 New Jersey voters from June 26 to July 2, with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. It included 505 Republicans with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, and 575 Democrats with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

COMPLETE RESULTS AT: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID1080

July 4, 2007

Will Al Gore’s Kid Use the Prius Defense?

gore.jpg So what if Al Gore’s son was arrested on suspicion of possessing marijuana and prescription drugs after being pulled him over for speeding.

Al Gore III, 24, had his mind on the future of the earth. He was driving a Toyota PRIUS. He was doing about 100 miles per hour on the San Diego Freeway, apparently testing the hybrid car’s gas mileage.

The police found some marijuana, Xanax, Valium, Vicodin and Adderall. Gore Jr. was probably depressed over climate change.

June 19, 2007

Bloomberg is Hillary’s Perot

Filed under: elections,Hillary,News and politics,presidential election,primary — jh staff @ 7:34 pm

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New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg announced that he was dropping his Republican affiliation, a step that could clear the way for him to make an independent bid for the presidency.

The announcement was released during a campaign-style swing through California.

Bill Clinton was elected twice without a majority because Ross Perot shaved off the Republican vote.

Now Hillary has her vote shaver as well.

Fred Thompson Leads in Irrelevant Poll

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Fred Thompson has not formally entered the presidential campaign is being featured in media reports touting a first place finish in a Rasmussen poll.

Thompson held a statistically insignificant one percentage point lead over former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the national poll of likely Republican primary voters, 28 percent to 27 percent.

However, the candidate is not chosen nationally so this poll matters very little.

When Thompson formally announces the press will consider it their duty to knock his poll numbers down.

June 18, 2007

Steven Spielberg Crumbles under Heavy Hillary Lobbying

Hillary Clinton’s people have been going after Hollywood director Steven Spielberg in a big way.

Ever since the Left Coast showed the love for Barack Obama, the Clinton camp has been in lobbying overdrive.

Last February, Spielberg, David Geffen and their partner Jeffrey Katzenberg co-sponsored an Obama fundraiser that roped in a whopping $1.3 million.

For weeks Clinton staffers have had their sights set on Spielberg, partially because of the director’s fondness for Hillary’s hubby. They were resolute. They had to get an early endorsement to avoid the impression that the entertainment industry had gone gaga for Obama.

They basically nagged the director, repeatedly pleading for him to declare his support for the New York Senator. He may even have received a call from his old bud Bill Clinton.

If Spielberg had endorsed Obama, it would have been viewed as a rejection of Hillary, much like Spielberg’s partner Geffen has publicly affirmed.

In a statement released through Hillary’s campaign, Spielberg said that he had become familiar with the Democratic candidates and that he was convinced “Hillary Clinton is the most qualified candidate to lead us from her first day in the White House.”

The grab for Hollywood cash is of great interest to Democrats who in the 2006 election cycle received 63% of the $23 million donated, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The media are filled with stories about how Hillary has now won the Tinseltown money battle.

But with Obama backers like George Clooney, Lawrence Bender, Geffen, Katzenberg and Oprah Winfrey, it’s way too early to say where the most Hollywood dough will eventually go.

June 3, 2007

George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon’s ’08 Presidential Picks

George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon recently took time out from hawking their “Ocean”’s sequel to engage in some presidential prognostication.

Clooney told Time Magazine, “I like Barack Obama a lot. I’ve spent some time with him.”

He divulged that he “actually had that conversation with him,” revealing that he told Obama, “Look, I’ll give you whatever support you need—including staying completely away from you.”

The actor is impressed with the Illinois senator’s charisma. “When other politicians stop and listen, that’s how you know what charisma is. You can’t teach that. He walks into a room and you go, ‘That’s a leader,’ “ Clooney said.

“Actors have done a lot of damage to candidates lately,” Clooney explained. “My father ran for Congress in 2004, and it was ‘Hollywood vs. the Heartland!’ My father was Hollywood.”

Clooney’s father lost the election.

Damon jumped on the Obama bandwagon as well. “I’m an Obama guy too. I think a lot of the problems in the world would be mitigated if he were the face of our country. I haven’t ever met him or talked to him, but he’s the first person in a long time who I’ve been inspired by,” Damon said.

Pitt is whistling a different tune. He has endorsed everyone who is running. “I’m just hungry for some honesty and leadership. And I’m following them all—on all sides.”

Clooney had some unsolicited advice for a potential Republican candidate. “I’m just hoping Gingrich gets in. Come on, Newt!”

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